The 25% tariffs that Donald Trump plans to impose on Mexico and Canada starting in February will end up being paid by American consumers, according to specialists.
“The one who really eats up the tariff, so to speak, is the North American consumer. Because we continue exporting at the same cost but it is the consumer who would be absorbing it,” said Gilberto Lozano Meade, managing partner of the consultancy Roland Berger México.
However, he commented, the negative scenario for the Mexican industry would be that there could be “certain drops” in the demand for products such as vehicles.
Even so, for the expert it is very unlikely that the Trump administration will impose taxes on Mexican exports, and he pointed out that it is rather a “political threat” to make progress with the Mexican government on issues of migration and the fight against drug trafficking.
“We believe that a lot of this in the end is their issues to be able to pull threads into other more political issues, rather than really the objective of doing it,” he added.
Oscar Silva Eguibar, partner specializing in the Manufacturing and Automotive Industry for the aforementioned firm, expressed that in the event that tariffs are established, the US government would not apply them to key industries, such as automotive or aerospace, since it would affect the chains. American industrialists.
“So from a purely fundamental economic point of view we do not see it as viable. We always say that in politics anything is possible, because politics does not always obey economic laws and the possibility exists, but if we analyze it from a fundamentally economic point of view, it should not happen,” he commented in an interview.
He added that the Mexican automotive and aerospace industries “are very competitive” and that “there is a lot of added value.”
‘Plan Mexico is assertive’
Regarding the Mexico Plan presented by President Claudia Sheinbaum to attract 277,000 million dollars in her six-year term, Gilberto Lozano pointed out that there are many interesting issues and that they are clearly “rescuable.”
“One of the most interesting points is obviously what they are looking for around participation, especially with the private initiative. It seems to me that it is a natural response, what is also being sought to be able to have greater participation from local chains,” he said.
He said that the aim is to strengthen the local industry and that there is still a lot to see and know how it will be implemented, as well as to know specific actions.
“But it seems to us that he is assertive. We will have to see all the details of the plans and all the mechanisms,” he commented.
“At least it is a good sign that we are not going to sit idly by and that we are doing things further. “Apparently the government is taking measures to strengthen the industry,” said Lozano.
He added that he has maintained communication with investors, who view the project “favorably.”
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