The global maritime transport industry, which manages 80% of world trade, is navigating a sea of uncertainty while the US president Donald Trump, fueled commercial and geopolitical tensions with historical enemies, as well as with neighbors and allies.
That is the context of the Annual S&P conference Global PM on maritime container transport and the supply chain held this week in Long Beach, California, an event that marks the beginning of the season of contract negotiations in the maritime transport of containers.
This year’s attendees include heavyweights in the industry such as MSC, Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd container transport companies, renowned customers such as Walmart and large logistics companies such as DSV and DHL.
These companies will be dealing with the side effects of the growing protectionism, which could reduce international trade and weaken the negotiating position of giants owners of boring ships, which have obtained great profits and have maintained for years the advantage in terms of prices.
Trump has already imposed an additional 10% tariff on China’s products, the largest exporter in the world, and has proposed entry rates to ports for millions of dollars for ships built in China.
On Tuesday, EU plans to impose 25% tariffs on products such as avocados and tequila of Mexico, and beef and Canada wood. It will also impose a 10% tariff on Canadian oil.
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Trump has threatened to impose an additional 10% tariff on Chinese products. Its administration also plans new or higher tariffs on steel and aluminum and has raised 25% tariffs on products from the European Union.
“The world has become very unpredictable,” said Hapag-Lloyd CEO, Rolf Habben Jansen, to journalists on Monday.
“Having higher tariffs and additional rates is not good for the global economy,” he said, adding that these measures would press the growth of the industry and consumers that support it.
The change in the largest importer in the world towards protectionism occurs while global supply chains manage greater costs derived from the extreme climate driven by global warming and the diversion of ships from the Suez channel to avoid attacks by the huti militants backed by Iran in support of the Palestinians in Gaza.
‘Unpublished in scope’
EU container imports from everything from plastic toys to machinery parts have increased, partly due to early purchases to avoid tariffs. However, trade experts warn that there is likely to be a reduction once the new import taxes will enter into force, which the target countries respond and buyers, already affected by inflation, absorb the impact of increases in costs related to tariffs, something that could press the demand for maritime transport and prices.
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The Drewry World Container Index index for the 40 -foot container spot was $ 2.629 on Thursday, 75% below the 10,377 pandemic peak in September 2021 and the lowest level since May 2024.
“The geopolitical panorama, of course, has become more complex, which could lead to wild oscillations in freight rates in any direction, but our base case is a moderation throughout 2025,” Jefferies analysts said in a recent note.
In another movement that has lit alarms worldwide, the US trade representative proposed on February 21 high rates on the ships built in China that enter the US ports under a plan backed by unions to promote the construction of ships in the US.
Under the proposal, a ship owned by Chinese maritime transport operators, including those of the state -owned COSCO, would pay an entry rate to the port of up to 1 million per boat. The rate for other operators that wear ships built in China could exceed 1.5 million.
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The change could benefit the operators of Taiwan and South Korea lines. However, experts warn that it will have a great impact on container carriers and could translate higher prices for products consumers ranging from toys and clothing to food and fuel.
“The economic burden for US exporters and importers will be enormous,” said Maritime Transportation expert Lars Jensen on LinkedIn.
“The actions taken by the US administration in the last four weeks are unpublished in scope and scale.”
With Reuters information
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