Donald Trump’s warnings of applying tariffs particularly alarm the epicenter of the Mexican maquila, in Ciudad Juárez, where businessmen estimate that 40,000 jobs and 250 companies have already been lost this year amid uncertainty.
Concern has grown since the first appointments announced last week by Trump, including Robert Lighthizer as head of the United States Trade Representation (USTR), a position he also held during the Republican’s first presidency (2017-2021). .
“The profiles we have heard are very hermetic, also very aggressive, radical, very strong with all this that Trump has been saying, about closing the border, about working very internally, about his foreign policy that is also very radical,” commented Thor Salayandía, president of the Border Business Block.
The representative of the private sector warned that this year more than 250 companies have already been lost in Ciudad Juárez that were dedicated to commerce, services, small industry and other branches.
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“The maquiladora industry has been very low, it has been producing less, for various reasons. It was an election year (in Mexico and the United States), a very difficult year. And it has been reflected in maquiladora employment here in the city, more than 40,000 jobs lost,” Salayandía lamented.
Effect on investment and employment
Trump won the election on November 5 after a campaign in which he warned of widespread tariffs on imports, border closures and taxes of at least 100% on cars made in Mexico.
For the president of the Border Business Block, the impact of these policies would affect Mexican workers, since the cost of tariffs will force many companies to reconsider their investments on the border.
He explained that, although not all companies could move, as Trump intends, the reduction in profit margins would lead to personnel adjustments or drops in production.
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“We do not have another economic model, we all depend on the maquiladora industry, and all the businesses and companies or small and medium-sized companies that are beginning to open are in some way around this maquiladora industry,” he warned.
Exchange rate and uncertainty
The peso has accumulated a depreciation of almost 20% so far this year, trading at 20.38 units per US dollar in the last day, compared to 16.97 at the end of the previous year, according to the Bank of Mexico, a phenomenon that is becoming more acute with the uncertainty that Trump’s return to the White House represents.
This volatility directly affects local companies that, for the most part, handle imported inputs to assemble products that they then send abroad.
President Claudia Sheinbaum asserted last week that Mexicans “have nothing to worry” about the review of the Agreement between Mexico, the United States and Canada (USMCA) in 2026, promising that she will seek to demonstrate to Trump’s team the benefits of trade for the American economy.
“In the review, which is not a renegotiation, of 2026, one of the big issues that we are working on are the benefits of the USMCA, not only for Mexico, which of course we benefit, but the benefits in the United States, just like the benefits for the United States of the work of Mexican men and women there,” he said on Thursday.
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The border economist, Alejandro Sandoval Murrillo, commented that in cities like Juárez, a cancellation of the treaty would practically put aside economic activity.
“In terms of tariffs, in terms of trade relations, he (Trump) believes, his treaty being the USMCA, that it should be renegotiated, even calling for its cancellation. Perhaps you do not fully understand what the harmful implications are for your economy, but it would have a very delicate impact on Mexico,” he described.
Sandoval Murillo also said that the Mexican economy has diversified, “but not fully.”
“And much less because of our geographical location, which guarantees us direct access to, today, our first commercial partner. So in that impact, in an extreme position, which is probably not going to happen, it would be extremely serious for an economy like Juarez’s,” he concluded.
With information from EFE
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