President Donald Trump’s tariffs, if sustained, could push the U.S. and the world into a recession, according to JPMorgan. If implemented, Trump’s tariffs — which start at a baseline of 10% and go even higher for some countries — raise the effective U.S. tariff rate to 25%, a level that would hurt the U.S. growth and inflation outlook, according to JPMorgan. The tariff hike would account for roughly 2.2% of GDP, the firm said. Meanwhile, it would add close to 2% to the consumer price index. “We view the full implementation of these policies as a substantial macro economic shock not currently incorporated in our forecasts,” global economist Nora Szentivanyi wrote on Thursday. “This shock will likely be magnified by its impact on sentiment and through the retaliation of countries facing significant increases in their tariff rates.” “We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and global economy into recession this year,” Szentivanyi added. To be sure, the economist said she’s not immediately making any changes to her forecasts, waiting to see how the policy will be implemented in the coming days. However, the severity of Trump’s tariffs alarmed investors Thursday morning, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures plunging more than 1,200 points on fears of a global trade war. Get Your Ticket to Pro LIVE Join us at the New York Stock Exchange!| Uncertain markets? Gain an edge with CNBC Pro LIVE , an exclusive, inaugural event at the historic New York Stock Exchange. In today’s dynamic financial landscape, access to expert insights is paramount. As a CNBC Pro subscriber, we invite you to join us for our first exclusive, in-person CNBC Pro LIVE event at the iconic NYSE on Thursday, June 12. Join interactive Pro clinics led by our Pros Carter Worth, Dan Niles, and Dan Ives, with a special edition of Pro Talks with Tom Lee. You’ll also get the opportunity to network with CNBC experts, talent and other Pro subscribers during an exciting cocktail hour on the legendary trading floor. Tickets are limited!
