This booming period marked by strong economic growth and robust market returns could extend into 2025, according to UBS, which is calling for the S & P 500 to rise as high as 7,000 in its most optimistic, bullish case. “The market and economic developments have led some to term the decade so far as the ‘Roaring 20s,’ marked by high economic growth, strong market returns, and improving productivity,” Mark Haefele, UBS Global Wealth Management chief investment officer, said in a note to clients. The stock market could see further gains if lower taxes and deregulation under a Trump administration add to a bullish narrative built on solid growth and continued investment in artificial intelligence, the strategist believes. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 The Wall Street bank set its base case of a 6,600 S & P 500 target for 2025, or about 10% upside from current prices. For its bull case, the equity benchmark could climb to 7,000 by year end 2025, a 16% gain from current levels. The S & P 500 appears set to wrap up a strong 2024 with a bang, thanks to optimism toward President-elect Donald Trump ‘s market-friendly policies. The benchmark is up 3.7% in November, pushing its 2024 gains to more than 24%, excluding reinvested dividends. Still, there are a few risks that could derail UBS’ bullish thesis, including aggressive trade tariffs, wider deficits between government spending and revenue, and geopolitical strife, all of which could drive up inflation and raise market volatility, the strategist said. “While we do not believe selective tariffs on U.S. imports from other countries are sufficient to derail U.S. growth, blanket tariffs would increase the risk of U.S. stagflation,” Haefele wrote.
