By Alejandro Padilla*
The first 100 days of the second term of Donald Trump have already been fulfilled and his influence feels intensely in all corners of the global stage. In an economic and geopolitical environment marked by uncertainty, many of the great movements, from the adjustments in public policies to the reactions of financial markets, seem to orbit around their figure. But to really understand the risks and opportunities posed by this new stage, it is not enough to observe figures or trends. It is necessary to enter Trump’s mind: understand what motivates him, what interests move him and how he builds his political narrative. Only in this way is it possible to distinguish between strategic decisions and symbolic gestures aimed at its electoral base. This exercise not only helps anticipate your behavior, but also to identify possible counterweights. This article will analyze the most relevant factors to understand Trump 2.0.
Causes of your victory …
Donald Trump’s return to the White House in January of this year was not a product of chance, but of a combination of structural and emotional factors that molded the national mood. The disenchantment with the Biden administration expressed itself with force on issues such as persistent inflation, the perception of insecurity linked to migration and the deterioration of families’ purchasing power. To this was added a growing ideological division between the progressive and conservative agenda.
Trump knew how to capitalize on that discontent with a simple but effective speech, reinforced by his media presence and mobilization capacity. However, his return does not guarantee governance. With the intermediate elections in two years, his administration could face a significant counterweight if he fails to turn his narrative into concrete results, especially in a congress that can change hands and stop his agenda.
… but with potential limits on the political horizon
Despite the initial impulse of his victory, political wear has begun to demonstrate quickly. According to the latest CNN survey, Trump’s level of approval is only 41%, the lowest for any president in his first 100 days since 1953. The disapproval responds mainly to his economic agenda, perceived as protectionist and disorderly, as well as fears of excessive use of presidential power. Only 39% of Americans approve their economic management, while an overwhelming 72% fears that their policies can take the country to a recession.
The financial markets have also reflected this concern: the S&P 500 share index has fallen 5.3% so far this year with a cut to April 30; The dollar, measured by the DXY index, has depreciated 8.3%, and long -term treasure bonds maintain high rates, a clear reflection of investors’ nervousness. These financial signals indicate that market support, which was key in their first administration, may not be guaranteed this time and represents an additional source of political vulnerability. A small respite occurred when President Trump gave up his pressures for dismiss
And another counterweight is the possible derailment of the economy
The most serious risk for the Trump administration does not seem to be, at least for now, a deep recession, but a scenario of stagns that combines low growth with persistent inflationary pressures. The deceleration signs are already visible: both industrial production and private consumption show a descending trend, while business and consumer confidence rates have fallen significantly.
The hardening of commercial policies and the growing regulatory uncertainty are weakening economic dynamism. According to the latest report of the International Monetary Fund, US growth could be below 2% this year, 1.8%. There are voices that do not rule out – despite not being the base scenario – a deeper contraction and technical recession as soon as in the second quarter. If it is exacerbated, this context could further erode the Trump political support base and strengthen the possibilities of the opposition in the intermediate elections. In that sense, the next months will be crucial to determine whether Trump 2.0 will be a transforming force or a brief episode of institutional disruption.
Trump 2.0 vs Trump 1.0
An essential part of the analysis is to understand that the Trump that returns to the White House in 2024 is not the same as in 2016. This “Trump 2.0” has greater support from the Republican Party, less internal resistance and more clarity about what it wants to achieve and how it intends to do it. It has a solid and much more cohesive electoral base and has also demonstrated a more pragmatic approach towards economic power.
It is enough to remember that, in his protest taking as president, he was accompanied by figures such as Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Tim Cook and other heavyweights of American business. This makes a key difference with respect to its first mandate, when its relationship with the corporate sector was more tense and less structured. This has led him to be more “fast and furious” on this occasion than when he arrived at the Oval office in 2017. As an example of this is that in these first 100 days he has signed 142 executive orders, which surpasses by far those that carried out their previous peers in the White House.
However, there are some elements that limit Trump 2.0. On the one hand, today it has a much more limited tax maneuver. This implies that their protectionist policies could not only respond to commercial or geopolitical objectives, but also to have a fiscal background by looking for new sources of income without resorting to Congress. This combination of greater political power, but less fiscal space, forces us to rethink the real impact of their decisions. Another will be the pressure exercised by entrepreneurs when they see their interests affected by unorthodox public policies.
Renewed tensions with China
Donald Trump’s protectionist policy is generating deep and disruptive transformations in international trade. Through unilateral measures such as tariffs, renegotiation of treaties and technological restrictions, its vision has promoted a fragmentation of the global system that previously favored interdependence and productive efficiency. This change is giving way to a more selective globalization, focused on economic blocks, strategic resilience and national security. Supply chains are being redesigned to reduce vulnerabilities, moving away from centralized models towards more diversified and regionalized schemes.
In this new context, the rivalry between the United States and China has intensified and is emerging as one of the main axes of global rearrangement. The hegemonic struggle between both powers covers not only the economic, but also technological, political and social fronts. For its part, China is positioning itself as a key counterweight: it is one of the greatest US debt holders and seeks to reorient global trade for more than a decade. The outcome of this tension will define the course of the world economy in the coming years.
As a conclusion, the first 100 days of the second mandate of Donald Trump have been decisive to lay the foundations of what could be a stage of deep disruption in the global economic and geopolitical order. Its most pragmatic style, but also more frontal, is generating internal and external tensions that test both their ability to govern and the direction of the United States. In this context, the relationship with China, the state of the economy and its margin of political maneuver will be key to defining whether Trump 2.0 will be a transforming force with lasting impact or an episode of confrontation with structural limits. The next months will be decisive.
About the author:
*Alejandro Padilla is president of the Economic Policy Commission of the International Chamber of Commerce Mexico and Deputy General Director of Economic and Financial Analysis of Grupo Financiero Banorte.
X account: @alexpadillasan
The opinions expressed in this document are of exclusive responsibility of the author and do not represent the opinion of ICC Mexico or Grupo Financiero Banorte or its subsidiaries or subsidiaries.
The opinions expressed are only the responsibility of their authors and are completely independent of the position and the editorial line of Forbes Mexico.
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