A United Airlines Boeing 737 MAX 9 airplane approaches San Diego International Airport on April 8, 2025 in San Diego, California, U.S.
Kevin Carter | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Airplanes are one of the few modes of transport that get you from your place of origin to your destination in a mostly straight line. But United Airlines, one of the biggest carriers in the U.S., doesn’t have the luxury of a direct route when it comes to predicting its finances. The airline on Tuesday offered two full-year earnings estimates: One is its original stemming from January; the other, a newly revised forecast if there is a recession.
On the one hand, it’s an acknowledgement that it’s impossible to predict the economy — think about how many analysts were certain a recession would strike the U.S. in 2023. On the other, it’s uncommon for companies to do so, reflecting the heightened volatility in the economy because of U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
In markets, however, volatility seems to be subsiding for now, according to the CBOE Volatility Index, or the VIX, which is seen as Wall Street’s “fear gauge.” Stocks retreated Tuesday, but they were marginal drops compared with the huge plunges the last week. The journey now, then, is relatively smoother, but as United Airlines’ unusual move suggests, turbulence could still be ahead.
What you need to know today
Volatility in markets retreats
U.S. stocks slipped Tuesday. The S&P 500 dropped 0.17%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.38% and the Nasdaq Composite was down a marginal 0.05%. The VIX fell to about 30 after hitting a high of around 60 last week. Europe’s regional Stoxx 600 index climbed 1.63%. LVMH shares sank 7.8% after the company reported Monday a 3% year-on-year fall in first-quarter sales, missing analyst expectations for slight growth.
Nvidia to take $5.5 billion charge
Nvidia shares fell around 6% in extended trading after the company said Tuesday that it will take a quarterly charge of about $5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphics processing units to China and other destinations. On April 9, the U.S. government told Nvidia it would require a license to export the chips to China and a handful of other countries, the company said in a filing. The H20 is an AI chip for China that was designed to comply with U.S. export restrictions.
China’s rare earth control
Amid Trump tariffs on China, Beijing earlier this month imposed export restrictions on seven key rare earth elements used in defense, energy and automotive technologies. According to a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, if China’s trade controls result in a cessation of such exports, the U.S. won’t be able to fill the gap — and this could threaten Washington’s military capabilities.
Earnings estimates in a recession
United Airlines reported earnings on Tuesday, and took an unusual step of offering two earnings outlooks. The company left intact expectations issued in January, but also provided earnings estimates in the event of a recession. “The Company’s outlook is dependent on the macro environment which the Company believes is impossible to predict this year with any degree of confidence,” it said in a securities filing.
India inflation slows further
India’s annual inflation rate fell to a lower-than-expected 3.34% in March, the country’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reported Tuesday. This marked the fifth straight monthly decline and came below the 3.6% reading expected by economists polled by Reuters.
[PRO] U.S. retail report could be deceptive
The U.S. retail sales report, out Wednesday, should look solid as consumers are still spending money. Economists are also expecting a healthy growth reading. The details, though, likely will tell a different story. Here’s why investors should not be taken in by the headline number, wrote CNBC’s Jeff Cox.
And finally…
The statue of Albert Gallatin stands outside the U.S. Department of the Treasury building in Washington, D.C.
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Trump tariffs drove a Treasury sell-off — who sold the safe-haven asset?
The U.S. Treasury market over the past week saw investors fleeing the safe haven, in an unusual move that added to the market turmoil caused by U.S. President Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs.
In just a few sessions, the yield on the 10-year Treasury soared to 4.592% on Friday, the highest since February. Similarly, the 30-year Treasury yield notched its highest since November 2023 last Wednesday. While yields have ticked lower since then, they remain elevated.
Among the likely culprits behind the bond sell-off are China, Japan’s life insurers, hedge funds and “bond vigilantes.”
