American science always suffers during government shutdowns. Lack of funding forces government scientists to stay home without pay. Federal agencies suspend new grant opportunities, paralyze expert review panels, and stop collecting and analyzing crucial public data sets that tell us about the economy, the environment, and public health.
In 2025, the stakes are higher than in previous lockdowns.
This closure comes at a time of great upheaval for American science and innovation, driven by President Donald Trump’s continued attempts to extend executive power and assert political control of scientific institutions.
As the government shutdown enters its fifth week and with no end in sight, the Trump administration’s rapid and controversial changes to federal research policy are rewriting the social contract between the US government and research universities, where the government provides funding and autonomy in exchange for the promise of subsequent public benefits.
As a physicist and science policy expert, I study and have a direct interest in the state of science funding in the United States, as I receive federal grants. I write about the history and governance of American science policy, including the country’s investments in research and development.
In the context of broader policy reforms in federal grantmaking, immigration of students and highly skilled workers, and scientific integrity, this closure has both known and unknown consequences for the future of American science.
Freezing funds, data gaps and unpaid workers
Over the past two decades, the story of government shutdowns has become all too common. Shutdowns occur when Congress fails to pass an appropriations bill before the start of the new fiscal year on October 1 and, to paraphrase Article 1, Section 9 of the US Constitution, the government can no longer spend money.
This budget shortfall affects all but essential government operations, such as the work of postal employees, air traffic controllers, and satellite operators. Non-essential employees, including tens of thousands of government scientists, are prohibited from working and are no longer paid.
With scientists and program managers working from home, the activities of the nearly two dozen federal agencies involved in research and development, such as the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health, come to a standstill. New grant opportunities and review committees are postponed or canceled, researchers in government laboratories stop collecting and analyzing data, and university projects that rely on federal funding are at risk.
Prolonged closures accelerate damage. They leave larger gaps in government data, put federal employees into debt or force them to dip into savings, and force academic institutions to lay off staff paid through government grants and contracts.
Financing, public services and the rule of law
Even in the case of shutdowns that last only a few days, it can take months for scientific agencies to catch up on backlogged paperwork, payments, and peer review panels before returning to regular operations.
This year, the government faces mounting challenges that it will need to overcome once the government shutdown ends: Trump and White House Budget Office Director Russell Vought are using the shutdown as an opportunity to “shut down the bureaucracy” and pressure colleges to bow to the administration’s ideological positions on issues such as free speech on campuses, gender identity, and admissions standards.
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As the budget impasse approaches the record for the longest administrative shutdown in history, agency furloughs, staff reductions, canceled grants, and jeopardized infrastructure projects document the devastating and immediate damage to the government’s ability to serve the public.
However, the full impact of the government shutdown and the Trump administration’s broader attacks on science on U.S. international competitiveness, economic security, and electoral politics could take years to materialize.
At the same time, the drastic decline in international student enrollment, the financial difficulties faced by research institutions, and research security measures to curb foreign interference predict an uncertain future for American higher education.
Neither the White House nor Congress show any signs of reaching a budget agreement. Trump continues to test the limits of executive authority, reinterpreting the law or simply ignoring it.
In early October, Trump reallocated unused research funds to pay military personnel who were on unpaid leave before they did not receive their October 15 pay. Changing the appropriated funds directly challenges the power that resides in Congress, not the president, to control federal spending.
The White House’s promise to fire an additional 10,000 public officials during the government shutdown, its threat to withhold back pay from furloughed workers, and its pressure to end any programs with lapsed funds that “are not consistent with the president’s priorities” are also measures to expand presidential power.
In this case, the damage to science could quickly worsen. If Trump and Vought sufficiently erode congressional authority through funding decisions or the closure of government agencies, the next three years will see an untold amount of research funds seized, canceled or reallocated.
Science, democracy and global competition
While technology has long served as a fundamental pillar of national and economic security, science has only recently re-emerged as a key driver of greater geopolitical and cultural changes.
China’s extraordinary rise in science over the past three decades and its establishment as the United States’ leading technological competitor have upended the conventional wisdom that innovation can only thrive in liberal democracies.
The White House’s efforts to centralize federal grantmaking, restrict free speech, erase public data, and expand surveillance reflect China’s successful strategy to build scientific capacity while cracking down on dissent.
As the Trump administration’s vision for American science takes shape, what remains unclear is whether, after the government shutdown, it will be able to overtake China by following suit.
*Kenneth M. Evans is a researcher in Science and Technology Policy and Innovation at the Baker Institute for Public Policy at Rice University.
This article was originally published in The Conversation
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