President Donald Trump is focused on striking deals — and just before the 25% tariffs on Mexican imports to the U.S. were set to take effect this week, they were paused Monday. Trump halted the duties for one month after the country’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, agreed to send 10,000 soldiers to the border to prevent drug trafficking from Mexico. And a few hours later, shortly after this story was originally published, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Trump agreed to at least a 30-day delay on implementing tariffs on Canadian imports. As of Monday evening, the 10% tariffs on goods from China are still set to go into effect Tuesday. As Monday showed, the tariffs are a moving target. Things change within minutes, and may change again in the coming days, weeks and months. The goal of this story is to broadly look at which portfolio stocks are at most risk from Trump’s hawkish trade policies, which names might be able to manage, and which may even benefit. Stocks at risk Constellation Brands: The company has no choice but to source its beer from Mexico. Higher costs then come at a risk to company earnings. Earlier Monday, we cut our Constellation position in half , prior to the delay being announced, as a hedge against a resolution forming or a tariff exemption for the company. “We’re getting rid of stocks that are losers so that we have enough cash if the market comes back,” Jim said during Monday’s Morning Meeting . Stanley Black & Decker : We’ve been concerned about this industrial stock because about 25% of the company’s tools and outdoor segment’s U.S. costs of goods sold are sourced from China. Luckily, it’s already a small position in our portfolio, at a 1.2% weighting. In January, we trimmed the stock into strength because of tariff concerns and stubbornly high mortgage rates slowing down turnover in housing. Home Depot: If the steeper Canadian tariffs ever go into effect, this stock may feel some pain due to higher lumber prices. Canada is one of the largest U.S. suppliers of lumber, paper and other forest materials. Already, Canadian softwood lumber products were subject to a 14.5% tariff . The potential 25% duty would be assessed on top of that. As a result, the cost of construction may get more expensive, potentially weighing on home improvement names like Home Depot. “If you raise home prices, you’ll have even fewer homes sold,” Jim said. Best Buy: This Club holding could face increased costs since a lot of consumer electronics are made in China. During the company’s last quarterly earnings call, CEO Corie Barry said that these higher costs from tariffs would be shared by Best Buy, vendors and customers. “These are goods that people need, and higher prices are not helpful,” Barry said then. Shares of Best Buy fell nearly 3% Monday. Stocks that can manage There are some portfolio names that we think can weather tariffs better than others. Apple: Bank of America described the impact from tariffs on the company as “manageable,” citing that in years past Apple was able to get an exception for the iPhone regarding tariffs. Although it’s unclear if that will happen again, the analysts still forecasted a “limited impact on earnings.” The firm reiterated its buy rating on shares in the Monday note. Amazon: The e-commerce giant is “relatively well positioned” to handle the new tariffs, Bank of America said Monday. Analysts at the firm cited Amazon’s “low-price focus, and a large third party marketplace (60% of units) that captures final value commissions & any geographic substitution in demand.” Jim added that Amazon could grab more share in e-commerce now that Trump cracked down on trade loophole that Chinese online retailers Temu and Shein used to gain a foothold in the U.S. market. Abbott Laboratories: Barclays said that the medical technology company name will be among the least impacted by the tariffs compared with peers because of Abbott’s minimal manufacturing presence in Canada, Mexico and China. The stock is up 0.6% Monday. “Abbott is a great stock here,” Jim said. Stocks that may benefit Coterra Energy: The Texas-based oil-and-gas producer can benefit from the fluctuation of commodity prices. Oil and natural gas prices could go up if Canada ever decides to reduce energy exports in retaliation to the U.S. tariffs, should they eventually go into effect. Canada is the U.S.’s biggest foreign supplier of crude oil. TJX Companies: The parent of Marshalls, Home Goods and T.J. Maxx could benefit from tariffs because supply chain disruption can make retailers over-order. When they do that, they often get stuck with too much inventory and they liquidate to off-price retailers like TJX. The company also is committed to keeping competitive prices versus the competition. “No matter what those categories are that could get hit with tariffs, everything is relative. We will make sure our values are proportionately below them as they always have been,” TJX CEO Ernie Herrman said on its November earnings call. Costco Wholesale: The market deemed Costco a winner Monday, with shares climbing more than 2% to close above $1,000 each for the first time. Costco is known to be the place to shop to get the best prices, and that value-focused ethos could be a positive if consumers are seeking reprieves from tariff-driven price increases. At the same time, though, we cannot ignore the fact that Costco sources a lot of products from Mexico. For that reason, the delay in tariffs for the country was good news on Monday. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) 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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during a press conference at the White House in Washington, D.C., the United States, on Jan. 30, 2025.
Xinhua News Agency | Xinhua News Agency | Getty Images
President Donald Trump is focused on striking deals — and just before the 25% tariffs on Mexican imports to the U.S. were set to take effect this week, they were paused Monday.
