For months, real estate executives have poured millions of dollars into efforts to prevent Zohran Mamdani from becoming New York City’s next mayor.
Industry players donated at least $13 million to political action committees backing former Gov. Andrew Cuomo or those simply opposing Mamdani, according to analysis by The Real Deal.
This money flowed as some in the industry warmed up to the idea of Mamdani becoming mayor, acknowledging that they supported elements of his housing plan and would work closely with him if he wins.
Tuesday will be the culmination of months of twists and turns in a race to replace Mayor Eric Adams at Gracie Mansion. Much is at stake for real estate, which is losing a former ally in City Hall and facing the prospect of a Democratic Socialist taking office. Some of the biggest policy fights over the last six years have played out between real estate groups and the Democratic Socialists of New York, and if Mamdani wins, the tension between the priorities of these frequent adversaries will be put to the test.
Still, after winning the June primary, Mamdani met with business leaders and emphasized points of common ground. He told The New Yorker that he is “not running to punish landlords.”
Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, is considered the frontrunner, though some recent polls showed his lead over Cuomo shrinking. Most polls this month show Mamdani with a 10-plus point lead. Republican Curtis Sliwa has polled at third place and has resisted calls to drop out of the race to give Cuomo a boost.
Housing was a major issue in this election. Mamdani pledged to freeze rents for the city’s one million stabilized apartments, a promise that is potentially threatened by the current mayor, who may appoint new members to the Rent Guidelines Board before he leaves office.
Landlord groups argue that freezing rents cuts off one of the few remaining avenues that owners have to raise rents on stabilized housing, and will lead to further deterioration of this housing stock. In response to such concerns, Mamdani has said that he is committed to reforming the city’s property tax system and exploring other forms of relief for landlords, including alternative forms of insurance. During the final mayoral debate, he said he wants to extend the property tax break J-51 to help owners with building renovations.
He also wants to build 200,000 new housing units over the next 10 years, funded by $70 billion in debt. To cover the debt service, he hopes to raise the corporate tax rate and add a 2 percent income tax on those making more than $1 million a year, changes that would require state action. Mamdani has also said he wants to make it easier for the private sector to build housing.
Cuomo’s housing plan calls for building or preserving 500,000 homes over the next decade, funded in part by city pension funds. He has said he wants to initiate construction of such housing simultaneously across hundreds of sites, though it is not clear how this would be accomplished. He also wants to overhaul the Department of Housing Preservation and Development, pointing to the agency’s backlog of housing projects.
Sliwa’s housing plan focuses on converting empty office buildings into housing and filling up vacant stabilized units, rather than incentivizing the construction of new housing. He has repeatedly said he opposes the zoning changes under the City of Yes for Housing Opportunity, the centerpiece of the Adams administration’s housing agenda, as well as the housing-related ballot measures.
On Tuesday, voters will also weigh in on several ballot questions to decide if the city’s land use review process should be overhauled for certain housing projects. City Council leadership adamantly opposes three of the questions, which in some cases remove the body’s ability to review housing projects or allows an appeals board to override its rejection of a development.
The fate of these questions will likely determine how the next mayor approaches his housing agenda. Cuomo supports the measures, while Sliwa opposes them. Mamdani has not publicly revealed where he stands on the measures.
These are the most contentious of the housing questions:
- Should the city create two “fast track” options for affordable housing projects?
If approved, this measure would allow the Board of Standards and Appeals to sign off on zoning changes for publicly-funded affordable housing. Such projects would not have to go through the city’s Uniform Land Use Review Procedure.The other fast-track option would apply to affordable housing projects proposed in the 12 community districts that have approved the least amount of affordable housing. Starting in October 2026, the city would release a report identifying which districts have permitted the least amount of affordable housing in the previous five years. Such projects will go through a condensed Ulurp: Community Boards will have the same amount of time to review these proposals (60 days), but the applicable borough president will review the proposal at the same time, rather than for 30 days after the community board’s review. The City Planning Commission, which will then have 30 days to review instead of 60, will have the final vote on these proposals, rather than the City Council.
- Should the city create a new land use review process for “modest” housing and infrastructure projects?
This new review process, dubbed Expedited Land Use Review Procedure or Elurp, would apply to housing projects in medium- or high-density districts that increase residential capacity by no more than 30 percent or to housing projects in low-density districts that are no taller than 45 feet and have a maximum floor area ratio of two. Proposals to put solar panels on public buildings or other land would also qualify.Elurp would follow the same timeline outlined in the previous question, but depending on the project type, either the City Planning Commission or the City Council’s review is skipped. (Some projects require review by the City Council under state law.)
- Should the city replace the mayoral veto with an appeals board?
Ulurp currently ends with the mayor, who usually goes along with whatever action the City Council takes (with a few exceptions). This proposal would replace the mayor’s power to veto land use decisions with a three-person appeals board, consisting of the mayor, City Council speaker and the applicable borough president. The appeals board could reverse the City Council’s rejection of projects that would create affordable housing. Such projects can only affect one borough. The appeals board can also restore such project proposals to the version approved by the City Planning Commission, undoing modifications approved by the City Council.
A fourth housing proposal is decidedly less controversial:
- Should the city create a consolidated, digitized City Map?
The City Map is the official street map of the city and consists of more than 8,000 pieces of paper, administered across five borough presidents’ offices. This proposal would create a single, digital map overseen by the Department of City Planning. The fragmented nature of the map has made city map changes “perhaps the most feared ULURP actions among private applicants,” according to the City Charter Revision Commission.
The final two questions are unrelated to housing:
- Should local elections take place the same year as presidential elections?
This would move elections for mayor, public advocate, comptroller, borough president, and City Council to even years to coincide with presidential elections, in a bid to increase voter turnout.
- Should a constitutional amendment retroactively approve the use of 323 acres of parkland for winter sports?
This land in Adirondack Park was developed for the 1932 and 1980 Winter Olympics in Lake Placid. The state’s Olympic Regional Development Association developed the public land without a constitutional amendment, as required by law. So, the ballot proposal, if approved, would bring the area into compliance, allow improvements and approve the state’s purchase of 2,500 acres of forest land to make up for the lost parkland.
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