President-elect Donald Trump on Monday vowed to impose tariffs on the United States’ three main trading partners: Canada, Mexico and China. The proposed tariffs would affect a wide range of industries, including oil, natural gas, agriculture and manufacturing, potentially disrupting long-established trade patterns and supply chains.
Oil
Canada exported about $177.19 billion in energy products to the United States in 2023, according to government data.
Canada’s crude oil shipments account for more than a fifth of all the oil processed by U.S. refineries. About 70% of barrels imported from Canada go to refineries in the US Midwest, which supply areas such as Chicago and Detroit.
Many of these refineries are set up to process heavier oil, so they would struggle to find a direct replacement for Canadian oil or face higher prices if this oil becomes subject to tariffs, which could increase fuel costs in the Middle East. West.
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In 2024, the United States imported approximately 5.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and petroleum products from Canada and Mexico, of which more than 4 million bpd came from Canada, according to recent data from the US Department of Energy.
In 2023, Canadian crude oil exports to the United States will exceed $110 billion, according to Canada’s energy regulator.
Gas natural
During the first eight months of 2024, the United States imported about 8.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) of natural gas from Canada and Mexico, according to recent data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Total natural gas exports were about $6 billion in 2023, according to Canada’s energy regulator.
The bulk of this year’s gas imports – about 8.4 bcfd – came via pipeline from Canada, compared to an annual average of 8 bcfd in 2023 and 7.6 bcfd over the past five years (2018-2022).
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The remaining 0.1 bcfd came from gas pipelines from Mexico, liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Canada and Trinidad and Tobago, and compressed natural gas (CNG) from Canada.
Meanwhile, the United States exported about 20.8 bcfd of gas during the first eight months of 2024, including 2.7 bcfd to Canada and 6.4 bcfd to Mexico, both via pipeline, and about 11.7 bcfd to other countries via LNG, according to the EIA.
The value of these gas exports was about $11 billion, according to Reuters calculations using the Henry Hub reference price.
Agriculture
In 2023, the United States imported $40.1 billion in agricultural products from Canada, making this country the second largest supplier of agricultural imports, after Mexico, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The United States imported nearly $3 billion in Canadian beef, $1.1 billion in pork and another $2 billion in live animals as part of an integrated cross-border livestock production and processing industry.
Canada also supplies nearly half of U.S. imports of vegetable oils and forest products.
On the other hand, in 2023, the United States imported $45.4 billion in agricultural products from Mexico.
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Two-thirds of all vegetable imports and half of fruit and nut imports in the United States come from Mexico, including nearly 90% of its avocados, up to 35% of its orange juice and 20% of its strawberries. .
Imports of Mexican tequila and mezcal, used for cocktails such as margaritas, totaled $4.66 billion in 2023, an increase of 160% from 2019.
Each year, Mexico exports more than a million head of cattle to integrate into the United States beef supply.
Sugar
The United States imported 521,000 short tons of sugar from Mexico in the 2023/24 season (October-September) under a bilateral trade agreement that reduces import taxes on Mexican sugar. This represented almost 15% of all US sugar imports, which totaled 3.76 million short tons last season.
Potassium
The United States imported about 13 million tons of potassium last year, of which 85% came from Canada, according to USDA data.
With information from Reuters
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