When the president of the United States, Donald Trump, and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, met Helsinki in 2018, both alarmed their allies with a friendly encounter in which Trump put himself on the side of the Russian leader on his own intelligence agencies in the electoral interference.
Trump flies to a meeting in Alaska with Putin on Friday in a different public mood: impatient for the lack of will of the Russian to negotiate the end of his war in Ukraine and angry at missile attacks against Ukrainian cities.
The world is waiting to see if it will be this toughest version of Trump that appears in Anchorage or if it will be the former real estate tycoon who has tried to meet with the cunning former KGB agent in the past.
The answer could have deep implications for European leaders concerned that Russia, if it is allowed to absorb parts of Ukraine, be more aggressive with NATO allies near Russia such as Poland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.
It is even more important for Ukraine, which has been losing land in the face of Russian forces after three and a half years of hard fighting.
Despite his hardest tone towards Putin in recent months, Trump has a more extensive history of trying to placate the Russian leader. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Trump refused to directly criticize Putin. The Russian president, rejected by several presidents, praised Trump for working to improve relations between Russia and the United States. Relations.
Kremlin observers are looking to see if Trump will be delighted again with Putin and will be influenced by his argument that Russia has the right to dominate Ukraine.
“It is a reasonable concern to think that Trump will be deceived by Putin and will reach a terrible agreement at the expense of Ukraine,” said Dan Fried, a diplomat of several presidents of the United States who is now in the Atlantic Council.
But a different result is also possible, Fried added. “There is a reasonable possibility that the administration realizes the fact that Putin is still playing them.”
The Trump administration has tried to moderate expectations, and the White House Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told journalists on Tuesday that the meeting would be an “listening exercise.”
Trump told reporters on Wednesday that he could negotiate a second meeting that includes both Putin and the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, if Alaska’s session goes well.
Russia has not given indications that she is prepared to make concessions amid Ukrainian concerns that Trump can reach an agreement without her opinion. Zelenskiy says he would like to see a high fire followed by security guarantees.
When Trump assumed the position again in January, the Republican president tried to revive the warmth between the two leaders of his first mandate, expressing sympathy for the isolated position of Putin in the world and promising to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours.
As the Administration relieved the pressure on Russia, some Trump advisors repeated as parrots the Russian conversation points for the dismay of Ukraine supporters. In March, the special envoy of the United States, Steve Witkoff, hinted in a podcast interview with conservative commentator Tucker Carlson that Russia had the right to capture four continental regions of Ukraine: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, because “they speak Russian.”
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Trump wants to know if Putin is willing to make concessions
And in a dramatic meeting at the White House in February, Trump and Vice President JD Vance rebuked Zelenskiy for their management of war, to delight the supporters of the hard line in Russia.
Despite all sweeteners, the Russian leader has refused to follow Trump’s efforts to bring both parties to a peace agreement. Putin has talked with Trump regularly, but has maintained mortal bombings against Ukraine.
The in progress of blood led Trump to change to a tougher posture in July and complain that Putin was stagnating him. Trump agreed to send new weapons to Ukraine, which Europe will pay, and has threatened new financial sanctions for Moscow.
Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India last week for buying Russian oil, indirect pressure on Moscow, but has refrained from fulfilling its threats to impose harder sanctions. On Wednesday, he threatened “serious consequences” if Russia does not reach an agreement.
“While the tone that comes out of the White House has changed, it has not yet been followed by an expansion of US sanctions (Trump’s deadlines for additional sanctions continue to delay) or new financial commitments of Washington to strengthen Ukrainian security,” said Nicolas Fenton, of the European Program, Russia and Eurasia of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
On Monday, Trump said he should know in two minutes if Putin is willing to make concessions. “I can say that good luck. Keep fighting. Or I can say that we can make a deal,” he said.
For Trump, who is attracted to the show of a high profile summit with the world looking, the appeal to reach an agreement is strong.
He has participated in an open campaign for a Nobel Peace Prize this year, pointing out what he has affirmed as his diplomatic victories, and has baffled the United States allies with his enthusiasm for a peace agreement with Ukraine who fear that he can be emboldened to Putin.
In recent days, Ukrainian and European leaders have protested by Trump’s statement that Russia and Ukraine will have to participate in land exchanges to reach a peace agreement.
While Russia occupies Crimea and great stripes of eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainians no longer control any Russian territory, which raises the question of what exactly could be exchanged.
Trump insists that, given his personal relationship with Putin, he is the only one who can end the war.
John Bolton, who was one of Trump’s national security advisors in his first term and is now an acute critic, said he was worried that Putin was “starting to do his magic” with Trump.
“Personal relationships obviously have a place in foreign affairs, as in everything else. But when you are one of the hard men in the world like Vladimir Putin, this is not a matter of emotion, it is a matter of cold calculation. Trump does not understand that point,” said Bolton.
In a publication on social networks on Wednesday, Trump complained that “the very unfair media are working in my meeting with Putin”, citing the use of quotes from “fired losers” like Bolton.
With Reuters information.
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