In 2025, irregular entries of migrants to the United States and also, once again, to the European Union (EU) visibly decreased, but not because the reasons that push them to seek a better life have disappeared, but as a result of more restrictive and even violent policies towards migrants that were extended to transit countries.
From January to November 2025, Frontex, the community border authority, recorded 166,900 “illegal” arrivals to the EU, which is 25% less than in the same period of the previous year.
In the United States, although there are no arrival figures as such, arrests on the border with Mexico fell almost 90%: from 1.26 million between January and October 2024 to 158,849 in the same period of 2025, according to data from the border authority CBP.
“Migration is decreasing due to the pure and simple effect of hardening and securitization of migration policies,” explains the coordinator in Spain of Doctors Without Borders (MSF), Raquel González.
It is not that the number of displacements worldwide has decreased – in fact, UNHCR numbers show an increase -, and neither have the causes for migrating: “2024 was the year with the highest active number of conflicts (56) since the Second World War,” he recalls.
“What’s happening? They have it much more difficult to reach Europe or the United States,” concludes González, because of the “rebound effect of securitization immigration policies” and the fact that right now “there is much greater violence” against migrants.
It is not that people do not migrate, but that they stay more in other areas of their countries or in neighbors.
Read more: US suspends immigration applications from 19 countries on Trump’s travel ban list
What is happening in the US with migration since Trump’s return?
After Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, “a series of regulations were implemented that, in practice, prohibit access to asylum for those who cross the border and make it difficult for people to remain in the country, even seeking international protection,” explains Laurent Seibert, researcher on migrants and refugees at Human Rights Watch (HRW).
“In addition, the Trump administration pressured other governments outside the United States to block and prevent irregular migration,” it continues.
This caused “a direct effect” on the migration chain, González agrees.
Those who are deported contact those who come behind them on the route and what happens, for example, is that the flow through the dangerous Darién jungle, the mountainous natural border that separates Colombia and Panama, “was absolutely cut off” at the beginning of the year.
Is it also happening in Europe?
Yes, and it’s not new. In 2015, the majority of people trying to enter Europe did so through Greece, until the EU signed a pact with Turkey, which increased entries through Italy via the Mediterranean; Then it was through Morocco and this year the same is seen on the Atlantic route, which in 2024 saw an increase in arrivals.
Arrivals in canoes and boats from countries like Mauritania and Senegal plummeted by almost 60%, with some 12,900 in the first nine months of the year. How can you explain it? The answer is not unique, but in August HRW released a report that provides answers.
“Our report confirms that, in this context of pressure from the EU to block these migrants, the Mauritanian security forces have committed serious human rights violations against migrants, asylum seekers and other people,” comments Seibert.
Over the past five years, they have gathered evidence of abuses, arbitrary detentions, inhumane detention conditions (such as lack of food), collective or summary expulsions, and accusations of racial discrimination.
“I do not think it is a coincidence that the EU announced last year a renewal of its partnership with Mauritania on migration and increased its funding. Therefore, I do not think it is a coincidence that the Mauritanian authorities are strengthening their immigration and border controls, and that they have carried out more arrests and expulsions this year,” argues the HRW researcher.
Continue reading: While Trump does not reach his goal of deportations, ICE pressures migrants to abandon their cases
Are these migration policies necessary?
To answer it, González gives the example of Spain: so far this year 31,472 migrants arrived irregularly to a country with almost 50 million people, so these entries are 0.06% of the population. “You cannot assume that this becomes a state issue, it does not have that impact.”
At the highest peak of migration to Europe, in 2015, one million people arrived due to the war in Syria, but 450 million live on the continent, so it is still less than 1%, so “it is not a problem that is going to break either the welfare state or the national security of the countries,” the expert considers.
What happens is that now there is “a much more defensive Europe, much more about closing borders”, where “very radical” discourses against migration were normalized and institutionalized, which proved to be profitable in terms of votes.
Furthermore, there is no longer a distinction between political overtones: “perhaps there is in the speeches, but in implementation practice there is not a big difference between progressive parties and more neoliberal or conservative parties,” concludes the MSF spokesperson.
With information from EFE
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