Polymarket has not paid out on bets predicting the United States would invade Venezuela, prompting angry reactions from some bettors, as the online betting platform suggested that the raid to capture Maduro did not qualify as an invasion and resolving the bet would require the United States to establish direct control of the country’s territory.
Key data
The issue of US military action in Venezuela has attracted a large volume of bets in recent months, with bets on a possible military confrontation between the countries exceeding $87.4 million in trade volume.
While bets were made predicting a “military combat” after the US raid against Maduro, another bet on “Will the United States invade Venezuela…?” remains unresolved.
The bet, whose trading volume has exceeded $10.8 million, includes a note that says it will be resolved as a “Yes” once the United States “begins a military offensive aimed at establishing control over any part of Venezuela.”
Polymarket said on Jan. 4 that President Donald Trump’s statement that the United States will “’control’ Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government,” “does not alone qualify” the Maduro capture mission as an invasion.
Therefore, the bets predicting such an invasion for January 31 remain unresolved, which has provoked anger in the comments of people who have bet on the “Yes”, with a complaint that says: “Polymarket has fallen into pure arbitrariness.”
Another user noted: “I’m pretty sure it should be like this after Trump said about 20 times in his press conference that the United States now controls Venezuela.”
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What should you pay attention to?
Polymarket bettors now believe there is only a 4% chance that the United States will invade Venezuela by the end of January. This represents a sharp drop compared to the 39% recorded shortly before the platform added the additional note. With this new description, bookmakers now believe there is only a 24% chance of a US invasion of Venezuela before the end of this year.
Tangent
In addition to betting on possible military actions, sportsbooks on Polymarket have also bet over the past few weeks on Maduro’s possible departure, with trading volumes reaching $56.6 million. However, this was also mired in controversy, as the Wall Street Journal reported that a mystery bettor doubled his bets on this hours before explosions were reported in Caracas. The mystery bettor ultimately won more than $400,000 on his bet, raising concerns about the possibility of insider trading. At the time these bets were placed, other sportsbooks on Polymarket believed there was only an 8% chance of Maduro leaving power at the end of January.
What are other current bets in the Venezuela betting market?
As for who will lead Venezuela later this year, bettors at Kalshi and Polymarket give interim president Delcy Rodríguez a 47% chance, putting her significantly ahead of Nobel Laureate Marina Corina Machado. Machado’s odds were above 40% with Kalshi on Sunday and 50% with Polymarket, but have since fallen to 17% and 15%, respectively. This fall comes after Trump’s derogatory comments about her, who stated that she lacked the “respect” necessary to govern Venezuela. Trump has also refused to commit to forcing Venezuela to hold new elections and has claimed that Rodríguez, Maduro’s former vice president, is cooperating.
This article was originally published by Forbes US
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