Recent interest rate cuts have brought relief to credit card, personal loan and auto borrowers, but homebuyers are unlikely to catch a break as mortgage rates continue to climb.
Following Donald Trump’s Presidential election win, 30-year fixed mortgage rates briefly surged, settling at 6.98% as of Thursday, according to Mortgage News Daily.
The rate has risen by nearly 1% since September, even after two Federal Reserve cuts to its benchmark interest rate totaling 0.75%, including a 25 basis point cut announced Thursday.
Why mortgage rates have kept rising
While mortgage rates often move in step with the Fed’s benchmark rate, they’re more directly tied to 10-year Treasury bond yields. These yields tend to rise when investors expect stronger economic growth and higher inflation — even when the Federal Reserve is cutting the federal funds rate.
“Since the middle of September, there have been a series of economic data reports showing that the economy is stronger than expected,” says Melissa Cohn, regional vice president of William Raveis Mortgage in New York. “When people have jobs and make money, they spend it, and that’s inflationary.”
The ramp up in mortgage rates also reflects market expectations that “President-elect Trump will accelerate the growth of the budget deficit more quickly than Vice President Harris would,” says Michael Nourmand, president of the brokerage Nourmand & Associates in Los Angeles. Trump’s proposed tariffs on imported goods could also drive inflation by raising prices, he says.
Mortgage rates are expected to ease slightly in the coming months, but will likely remain around 6% well into 2025, according to forecasts by major mortgage lenders and industry associations — nearly double their levels from three years ago.
But if Republicans gain control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress, fewer obstacles to new spending could drive bond yields higher, with investors expecting more borrowing and inflation risks, according to Mortgage News Daily.
Either way, “continued deficit spending, coupled with discussions of additional tariffs on imports, is likely to keep [mortgage] rates elevated through the remainder of 2024,” says Nourmand.
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