Ashley Thompson, executive director of MUSH, night oats based in Chicago, is preparing for the day when his key ingredient, the oatmeal he obtains from Canada for years, will face extreme volatility as a consequence of the global tariff wave of the Trump administration.
His company, which is also supplied with Canadian fruit (for oat flavors) and plastic (for containers), provides that tariffs – although oatmeal is protected for now by a legal lagoon in free trade – reduce profits at a critical moment. And while Canada prepares to retaliate, Thompson states that Mush is willing to assume the additional costs that may arise.
“Our gold ideal would be that we absorb most, if not all, and that the tariffs did not have a great impact on our economy,” says Thompson, 34, a member of the 2020 generation of Forbes 30 under 30. “This has revitalized the purchasing and manufacturing team to think in other ways to save.”
Volatility is a challenge that Thompson, luckily, is accustomed, after operating with values supported by assets in Goldman Sachs before founding Mush in 2015. And predicts that uncertainty will boost more clients to opt for affordable options, which is ready to offer. Its breakfast and protein -rich breakfast business has grown since then until reaching $ 50 million in estimated annual revenues thanks to the distribution in 12,000 stores. Thompson points out that the sales of March 2025 were the highest in the history of the company, both in terms of income and units sold. It is projected that Mush sells its cup of oatmeal number 200 million by the end of this year.
“We have a great impulse,” says Thompson. “We are at a crucial turning point,” he adds.
But the consequences of economic crises have arrived to ruin the party. Thompson, Mush’s greatest individual shareholder, hopes that his business will be agile enough and that the profits he has managed to retain over the years support him during the uncertainty that is coming.
Canada, he says, will continue to be the place where Mush buys his oats. This North American country is the second largest world producer of Avena, after Russia, responsible for approximately 15% of the total harvest, or 3.3 million tons. The United States produces 4%, which is equivalent to just under one million tons. There is simply enough, he explains, to sustain the industry: “If we all supply in Canada and now we all try to go to the United States,” says Thomson, “it is simply a matter of supply and demand.”
Canada was exempt from the initial “reciprocal” “reciprocal” tariffs announced on April 4, but Canadian prime minister promised to counterattack “with determination and forcefulness.” The 25 % tariff imposed by the Trump administration to all Canadian products, including cereals such as oatmeal, was in force for three days earlier this year, before the Trump administration revoked it. The Cereal Canada commercial organization then declared that the tariffs “cut the cross -border supply chains and damage the long relationship between the United States and Canada.”
For now, cereals are still exempt, since they are included in the Free Trade Agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico. But that could change, says Randy Strychar, president of Oatinformation, who analyzes oatmeal markets worldwide. “Is it a concern that weighs on the market? Yes,” says Strychar, who mentions that tariffs on other sources of oatmeal in Europe, Australia and Chile also imply that US companies have less worldwide options. “I had never seen so much unpredictability in the sector.”
At the same time, the Avena de Canada supply has reached historical minimums and there is a risk of a supply shortage until 2026. Americans are the largest oatmeal consumers in the world and Canada has a 98% participation of the entire US market.
“They have no choice. They need them from Canada,” Strychar adds. “These food companies are in a difficult situation.”
The idea of Mush emerged many years ago. When Thompson, one of five daughters from independent entrepreneurs in New Jersey, was in high school and high school, liked to prepare breakfast in advance; This meant cereal and milk pour into a bowl, let it stand in the refrigerator during the night and eat the humid Mush the next morning. “The cereal is cheap. It is processed and cannot be conserved,” says Thompson. “I ate it for breakfast, lunch and dinner.”
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With tariffs in sight, this oat businessman is ready to assume costs
Years later, Thompson shared the recipe he longed for for a healthy image change and inspired her to leave her position in Goldman’s operating room to undertake a oatmeal business. After receiving his bonus of the third year, he moved to the south of California to found the brand and called Mush, which, according to her, means “the definitive source of health of humanity.”
Its first sales were produced in local agricultural markets. The ease of having a newly prepared oatmeal in the refrigerator quickly became popular, especially among Whole Foods buyers, many of whom resorted to the brand in search of more practical and healthy breakfast options.
For 2019, Mush had moved to Chicago and generated $ 5 million in annual sales. The distribution reached 3,000 stores across the country and Thompson got 1.3 million investors, including Mark Cuban and Peter Rahal. This success earned Thompson a place on the list of 30 children of 30 of food and drink of 2020.
The last time that such uncertainty affected the industry, in 2020, Thompson directed the business with a opposite strategy: when many food brands chose for direct sales to the consumer, Mush closed their online business.
It was successful, since it became more difficult and expensive to get customers online, while the shipping prices of the refrigerated boxes shot. Meanwhile, retailers faced the lack of stocks on the shelves, since Thompson focused on the experience of purchase in person. Thompson says that his mentality at that time was: “We reduce the approach and bet on what we know works very well.” But now that Mush has expanded its line to oat protein bars and night oat bags, and those products are more easily sent than individual cups, the company’s electronic commerce is relating.
As Mush, which does not contain added sugar, flavorings or artificial coloring, or preservatives, it has been positioning in Costco, Target, Kroger and Sprouts, Thompson has reinvested the profits in the business. In addition, he has raised 18 million dollars of external investors.
Mush has become the leading brand of night oats, what Thompson attributes to his refusal to pay another manufacturer to make the product. Therefore, much of Mush’s profits have been allocated to the construction of the company’s two production plants in Salt Lake City. Now, in total, they have a space of 5,588 square meters dedicated to the elaboration of oatmeal, their packaging in individual vessels, its sealing and its shipment to supermarkets throughout the country.
“It has a real advantage in manufacturing,” says Quincy Fennebresque, investor since 2021, who points out that most Mush’s main competitors are more expensive or of lower quality. “Ashley can manage tariffs better than any competitor. Ashley focuses on costs more than anyone. He has never opted for the easy way.”
And as prices in supermarkets have shot themselves, Thompson has pressed Mush to reduce prices. The prices depend on the retailer, but Mush has dropped the wholesale price of its main cups from 2.49 to 1.99 dollars each. This also means that there is less margin of maneuver in the face of the consequences of tariffs that affect the global economy.
Oatmeal is the cornerstone of production, and quality has been a priority for Thompson over the years. One of the main reasons why it was supplied with Avena de Canada, he says, is that it is verified as free of the glyphosate herbicide. The opposite occurs with oatmeal cultivated in the United States, unless it has organic certification, which entails a price difference that Thompson is not willing to assume, in addition to a lower general offer.
“Nobody wants to ingest glyphosate,” says Thompson. “We do not want what we put in the product affects the metabolic function of people at the cellular level. We really want a clean and healthy product.”
Thompson adds that her deep concentration will help her overcome any uncertainty that is coming. He says that he has his eyes on the future: “My dream would be that when I am a grandmother and walk through the corridors of the supermarket, Mush remains a mark on the shelves that Americans love and in which they trust.”
This article was originally published by Forbes Us.
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