Private sector economic specialists consulted by the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) adjusted upward their projection of the country’s economic growth for 2024, from 1.53% to 1.60%, but decreased that of 2025, from 1.20% to 1.12%.
The monthly expectations survey published this Monday already includes the forecast for 2026, which points to a growth of 1.80%.
According to the results of the survey carried out between December 5 and 10, specialists consider that, in general, the factors that could hinder economic growth in the next six months are associated with governance, internal economic conditions and economic conditions. external.
At a particular level, the main factors are: public insecurity problems; other problems of lack of rule of law; internal political uncertainty; uncertainty about the internal economic situation; foreign trade policy, and the absence of structural change.
More moderate inflation at the end of 2024
Analysts reduced their expectation for the end of 2024, from an annual rate of 4.42% to another of 4.37%; For 2025 the projection remained at 3.8% and for 2026, at 3.7%.
Expectations for core inflation in 2024 went from an annual rate of 3.69% to 3.60%, for 2025 they remained at 3.72%, and for 2026, at 3.60%. This component of inflation excludes prices of more volatile goods and services, such as agriculture, energy, and tariffs authorized by the government, and allows for a better perspective of price behavior in the medium term.
See a dollar at 20.25 pesos at the end of the year
Specialists estimate that the exchange rate will close 2024 at 20.25 pesos per dollar, a level slightly lower than the previous survey, of 20.29 pesos; for 2025, the projection decreased from 20.59 to 20.53 pesos; and by 2026 it will be reduced from 21.23 to 21.00 pesos per greenback.
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