The Mexican economy will grow 1.2% in 2026, a “moderate recovery” after 0.4% in 2025, in a context of commercial uncertainty and with exports as the main support, while the country faces a “problem of chronic lack of growth,” as detailed this Monday by the chief economist for Latin America and Canada at Bank of America, Carlos Capistrán.
In a press conference, Capistrán explained that exports grew in 2025 “above 5%” in real terms, despite the uncertainty and volatility associated with the tariffs promoted from Washington, and anticipated that in 2026 they could expand again above that threshold.
In this sense, he stated that last year Mexico avoided a recession “basically because exports responded well,” in an environment that he described as one of uncertainty and new tariffs.
In his long-term diagnosis, Capistrán maintained that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita “has basically not grown” in the last decade and described it as “stagnant.”
To measure the lag, he compared an accumulated growth of 5% of Mexico’s GDP per capita in 10 years with 70% in China, 20% in the United States and 10% in Chile, under a comparable database.
Lee: They consider that exports prevented Mexico from falling into an economic recession in 2025
The economist attributed part of the problem to productivity and pointed out that, in the last decade, total factor productivity has fallen 8% cumulatively, which, in his opinion, constitutes a “productivity crisis.”
TMEC continues, but with annual reviews
Regarding the Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (TMEC), Capistrán proposed its continuity as a base scenario, although with possible episodes of volatility during the review.
He also pointed out the possibility that some issues are not closed—he mentioned energy as an example—and that this could lead to more frequent reviews, even annual ones, which would prolong the uncertainty for companies.
“That way we would have a T-MEC that, although it is not destroyed, continues, since it has more frequent reviews, in such a way that the uncertainty does not just go away,” he stated.
Likewise, he stated that if the USMCA is “broken,” it would be a “hard blow” for the Mexican economy and that growth would be “very different,” adjusting downward compared to the bank’s base scenario.
The analyst also addressed hypotheses about an eventual departure from Canada, pointing out that this would increase uncertainty, but clarified that trade between Mexico and Canada “is not much.”
He recalled that Mexico concentrates more than 80% of its trade with the United States, so in that case, if Washington and Mexico City maintained the agreement, Mexico would retain a relevant part of the trade benefits, although after a period of high volatility.
With information from EFE
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